Comparative epidemic expansion of SARS-CoV-2 variants Delta and Omicron in the Brazilian State of Amazonas.

The SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) Delta and Omicron spread globally during mid and late 2021, respectively. In this study, we compare the dissemination dynamics of these VOCs in the Amazonas state, one of Brazil's most heavily affected regions. We sequenced the virus genome from 4128 patients collected in Amazonas between July 1st, 2021, and January 31st, 2022, and investigated the viral dynamics using a phylodynamic approach. The VOCs Delta and Omicron BA.1 displayed similar patterns of phylogeographic spread but different epidemic dynamics. The replacement of Gamma by Delta was gradual and occurred without an upsurge of COVID-19 cases, while the rise of Omicron BA.1 was extremely fast and fueled a sharp increase in cases. Thus, the dissemination dynamics and population-level impact of new SARS-CoV-2 variants introduced in the Amazonian population after mid-2021, a setting with high levels of acquired immunity, greatly vary according to their viral phenotype.

Predicting the Trajectory of Replacements of SARS-CoV-2 Variants Using Relative Reproduction Numbers.

New variants of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) with high effective reproduction numbers are continuously being selected by natural selection. To establish effective control measures for new variants, it is crucial to know their transmissibility and replacement trajectory in advance. In this paper, we conduct retrospective prediction tests for the variant replacement from Alpha to Delta in England, using the relative reproduction numbers of Delta with respect to Alpha estimated from partial observations. We found that once Delta's relative frequency reached 0.15, the date when the relative frequency of Delta would reach 0.90 was predicted with maximum absolute prediction errors of three days. This means that the time course of the variant replacement could be accurately predicted from early observations. Together with the estimated relative reproduction number of a new variant with respect to old variants, the predicted replacement timing will be crucial information for planning control strategies against the new variant.

Estimating relative generation times and reproduction numbers of Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 with respect to Delta variant in Denmark.

The Omicron variant spreads fastest as ever among the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronaviruses 2 (SARS-CoV-2) we had so far. The BA.1 and BA.2 sublineages of Omicron are circulating worldwide and it is urgent to evaluate the transmission advantages of these sublineages. Using a mathematical model describing trajectories of variant frequencies that assumes a constant ratio in mean generation times and a constant ratio in effective reproduction numbers among variants, trajectories of variant frequencies in Denmark from November 22, 2021 to February 26, 2022 were analyzed. We found that the mean generation time of Omicron BA.1 is 0.44-0.46 times that of Delta and the effective reproduction number of Omicron BA.1 is 1.88-2.19 times larger than Delta under the epidemiological conditions at the time. We also found that the mean generation time of Omicron BA.2 is 0.76-0.80 times that of BA.1 and the effective reproduction number of Omicron BA.2 is 1.25-1.27 times larger than Omicron BA.1. These estimates on the ratio of mean generation times and the ratio of effective reproduction numbers have epidemiologically important implications. The contact tracing for Omicron BA.2 infections must be done more quickly than that for BA.1 to stop further infections by quarantine. In the Danish population, the control measures against Omicron BA.2 need to reduce 20-21% of additional contacts compared to that against BA.1.

Relative Reproduction Number of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron (B.1.1.529) Compared with Delta Variant in South Africa.

The world identified the rapidly increasing incidence of the causative variant of SARS-CoV-2 Pangolin B [...].

Relative instantaneous reproduction number of Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant with respect to the Delta variant in Denmark.

The Omicron variant of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has become widespread across the world in a flashing manner. As of December 7, 2021, a total of 758 Omicron cases were confirmed in Denmark. Using the nucleotide sequences of the Delta and Omicron variants registered from Denmark in the GISAID database, we found that the effective (instantaneous) reproduction number of Omicron is 3.19 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.82-3.61) times greater than that of Delta under the same epidemiological conditions. The proportion of Omicron infections among all SARS-CoV-2 infections in Denmark was expected to exceed 95% on December 28, 2021, with a 95% CI from December 25 to December 31, 2021. Given that the Delta variant or variants less transmissible than Delta are dominant in most countries, the rapid increase in Omicron in the virus population may be observed as soon as the Omicron is introduced. Preparing proactive control measures is vital, assuming the substantial advantage of the transmission by Omicron.

Predicted dominance of variant Delta of SARS-CoV-2 before Tokyo Olympic Games, Japan, July 2021.

Using numbers of SARS-CoV-2 variants detected in Japan as at 13 June 2021, relative instantaneous reproduction numbers (RRI) of the R.1, Alpha, and Delta variants with respect to other strains circulating in Japan were estimated at 1.25, 1.44, and 1.95. Depending on the assumed serial interval distributions, RRI varies from 1.20-1.32 for R.1, 1.34-1.58 for Alpha, and 1.70-2.30 for Delta. The frequency of Delta is expected to take over Alpha in Japan before 23 July 2021.